The Changing World Order

Ray Dalio

The Changing World Order



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The times ahead of us are likely to be very different from those any of us have experienced in our lifetime. To be prepared to face them we need to understand how the history of humanity is evolving. In his book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, the infamous investor Ray Dalio has condensed a series of insights stemming from his studies on the cause-and-effect relationships underlying all the major changes in the world order over the last 500 years. Dalio has thus been able to provide a clear perspective on the phases that make up the different cycles through which humanity evolves, in order to enable the reader to understand where we are now, and what we should expect from the future.

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Analysis and key concepts


Looking back at the past can help us ascertain what might happen in the future


Every cycle, whether internal or external, follows a predefined path from prosperity to decline


Studying the history of the various empires over the last 500 years enables us to better understand how evolutions and cycles work


To better understand how these cycles work, we can take a closer look at the cause-effect relationship that determines the passage from order to chaos and vice versa


The downside is that this period of productivity and wellbeing triggers a series of excesses whose negative side-effects come to light, sooner or later


The decline stage begins, and this gentle downturn rapidly becomes an avalanche


Internal cycles work in the same way as external ones but they depend more heavily on the dynamics of power


There are various indicators to measure the health of a given power system


Three things have happened in the last few years that look like the precursors to a possible change in the current micro cycle




Take-home message

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Many useful tips to:

  • Understand that our world order is changeable and not static.
  • Understand the cause-effect relationship behind the success and failures of nations.
  • Provide a set of tools to prepare for whatever the future may hold, even though it might be very different from anything we know.

Ray Dalio is an American investor and philanthropist. He is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, listed by Forbes as one of the top 50 private companies in the United States. Ray Dalio grew up in a Long Island neighborhood, the son of a jazz musician and a housewife. When he was still very young, Dalio worked as a golf caddie, from where he collected suggestions to start his business. In 1975, after earning an MBA from Harvard Business School, he launched Bridgewater Associates from his apartment in New York City. CIO magazine defines him as "the Steve Jobs of investments".

Publishing house:

Simon & Schuster